2024 Global and U.S. energy trends​

Critical infrastructure and corporate assets are particularly vulnerable in a warming climate. Extreme weather shocks – heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, floods and storms – have devastating impacts on human life, but also disrupt services and operations in ways that can have global ripple effects on the economy.

Governments and businesses are reevaluating supply chains and infrastructure and investing in new technologies and adaptability measures. The importance of a more systemic approach to build more resilience and longevity into systems was made clear at United Nations Climate Conference, COP28, where 200 countries explicitly called for the transition away from fossil fuel. And evident in the U.S., where its seen the creation of over 100,000 new climate jobs, spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act and a record-breaking power generation from renewables.

The Weber Shandwick Collective (TWSC) sat down with Christine Harada, Senior Advisor at the White House, and Sasha Mackler, Energy Senior Advisor for TWSC and Executive Director for the Energy Program at the Bipartisan Policy Center, to focus on the net-zero signals to watch this year.

As the public and private sectors work to accelerate the green energy transition, below are key considerations that will guide policymakers in 2024.

Global energy demand will rise.¹

  • Energy growth is forecast to rise by 1.8% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023.
  • Growth in 2024 will be marginal in North America and Latin America due to moderating economic growth.

Despite pressure to reduce fossil fuel consumption, global demand for oil, gas and coal will reach a record level in 2024.

  • Natural gas production will rise by 2.2% in 2024, led by production in North America, Norway, North Africa, the Middle East and Australia.
  • Oil prices will remain elevated – but below their 2022 peaks – as OPEC and Russia manage production levels and demand.
  • Coal consumption declined sharply in most advanced economies in 2023, including drops in the European Union and the U.S. of around 20% each. However, demand in developing economies will remain strong – led by India, China and Indonesia – due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output.²

Governments will push ahead with faster deployment of renewable energy, with a global forecast of 11% year over year growth in 2024.³

  • Wind capacity is growing at a slower pace than solar. Offshore wind production is generating less investor interest in the face of rising costs, high interest rates and supply chain issues.
  • Many countries are investing in green hydrogen, but there are significant challenges: access to strategic minerals and metals, high costs and limited electrolysis capacity.
  • Climate will be part of the political debate in national elections in the United States, India and European Parliament in 2024 – and election outcomes might impact climate policies in these markets and beyond.4

Climate policy will focus on transition away from fossil fuels.

  • The COP29 presidency will be Azerbaijan – another oil and gas producing nation. At the Baku conference, governments must establish a new climate finance goal that reflects the scale and urgency of the climate challenge.5

The push of U.S. federal investments flowing into clean energy, together with the pull of decarbonization demand from investors, activists and consumers, will remain strong in 2024.

  • The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that renewable deployment will grow by 17% to 42 gigawatts in 2024. U.S. wind and solar power generators are projected to produce more electricity than coal in 2024 for the first time, according to EIA.6
  • Renewables are forecast to provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity next year, while both coal and natural gas are set to decline.7
  • EIA expects solar generation in 2024 to increase 39% (228 KW) from 2023, driven by continued increases in solar capacity, according to EIA.8

For more information about our work in the energy sector, contact Teressa Wykpisz-Lee at [email protected].

References:

  1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), “Energy Outlook 2024” (November 2023)
  2. International Energy Agency (IEA), “World Energy Outlook 2023” (October 2023)
  3. EIU, “Energy Outlook 2024.”
  4. Manuela Andreoni, The New York Times, “Climate is on the Ballot Around the World” (January 2024)
  5. Argus Media, “Azerbaijan’s Cop 29 to shift climate focus on finance” (January 2024)
  6. Urbashi Dutta, Yahoo! Finance, “3 Energy Stocks Leading the Clean Energy Transition in 2024” (January 2024)
  7. U.S. Environmental Information Administration (EIA), “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” (January 2024)
  8. U.S. Environmental Information Administration (EIA), “EIA expects combined U.S. solar and wind electricity generation to surpass coal-fired generation in 2024” (December 2023)

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