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This edition of Policy Matters focuses on the transition to the second Trump administration and lame-duck activities of the Biden-Harris administration and 118th Congress.
While President Joe Biden maintains a relatively low profile, even as his administration looks to ensure a smooth transition, President-elect Donald Trump is dominating U.S. politics and policymaking. He’s presiding over private gatherings with leading CEOs seeking to influence his policies, pursuing legal action against media organizations and executing his trademark, always-on approach to social media.
Congressional leaders, foreign dignitaries, business executives and others are looking for his direction, signals and support ahead of what is likely to be an intense first day, week and 100 days for the Trump-Vance administration. “Everybody wants to be my friend,” Trump said during his first press conference since Election Day.
Building the Cabinet and White House team
In the six weeks since Election Day, it has quickly become clear that President-elect Trump continues to prioritize loyalty, embrace disruption and reject traditional political ideologies and alliances. All eyes have been on the president-elect as he has started to build out his White House staff and nominate Cabinet-level leaders and other officials. He has assembled a team of political allies and acolytes – including billionaire executives, erstwhile candidates and television personalities – several of whom have generated significant controversy and concerns.
While Trump had previously suggested the incoming Republican Senate majority allow him to make recess appointments to bypass the confirmation process for many of his nominees, the Senate is currently pursuing the standard process of “advice and consent,” including meetings with nominees, FBI background checks and plans for confirmation hearings before voting. Vice President-elect and Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) is playing a prominent role in helping to shepherd the president-elect’s nominees before his soon-to-be-former Senate colleagues.
The political and media swirl around FOX News personality Pete Hegseth, the nominee to be the next Secretary of Defense, demonstrates why Trump’s original nominee for Attorney General, former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), withdrew from consideration amid scrutiny; it may also portend the confirmation process to come. The Hegseth allegations and Gaetz withdrawal have largely overshadowed debate around the suitability of Trump’s other controversial nominees, including activist and former 2024 independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services; former Rep. and Democrat Tulsi Gabbard (HI) to be Director of National Intelligence; and Trump loyalist and former national security aide Kash Patel to be director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
Day one, week one of Trump 2.0
Trump made myriad, ambitious promises on the campaign trail. On Day One – January 20, 2025 – he reportedly plans at least 25 executive orders (EO) within hours of returning to the Oval Office, orchestrated by longtime senior aide Stephen Miller, the incoming Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, with particular emphasis on rolling back the Biden administration’s border policies and implementing the first steps toward more aggressive border security and deportations.
Also among those Day One EOs, Trump has vowed to implement sweeping import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. He would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the U.S. from Mexico and Canada until both countries address drugs and undocumented people crossing the borders into the U.S. – a move that would appear to violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated and signed in the first Trump administration. Separately, Trump has suggested an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, on top of the 60% tariffs he proposed on the campaign trail. Trump likely does not need Congress to impose tariffs.
Other promises – some more realistic and achievable than others – include: ending the war between Russia and Ukraine; ending birthright citizenship; reinstating some version of his first-term ban on travel from Muslim-majority countries; promoting more domestic energy production and terminating elements of one of Biden’s signature legislative accomplishments, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); cutting federal funding for schools teaching critical race theory; rolling back protections for transgender people and access to gender-affirming care; and pardoning those convicted for violently storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Another issue for Trump’s to-do list: what to do about the TikTok ban. In April, Congress passed and President Biden signed a law requiring TikTok’s owner, China-based ByteDance, to sell the popular social platform or face a ban in the U.S. The company has challenged the constitutionality of the law; the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will now hear the case on January 10 – just nine days before the deadline to sell. Trump has flip-flopped on his support for a ban and recently met with the company’s CEO. Pending SCOTUS’s ruling, it is unclear whether Trump will enforce the law once he takes office, extend the deadline for sale or encourage Congress to repeal the law.
The first 100 days
Many of these priorities will no doubt carry beyond the first day and week of the second Trump administration into the first 100 days – a traditional milestone for each president. Two agenda items getting the most attention are tariffs and deportations. The advancement of tariffs will face steep political challenges – both international and domestic. New polling suggests that American opposition to tariffs is growing as Americans increasingly understand how these measures could reignite inflation. While there is less domestic opposition to a mass deportation initiative, the advancement of such an effort will face, as it did in Trump’s first term, significant logistical challenges – from deportee round-ups via the military or local law enforcement, to interim detention and travel, to reception arrangements with countries of origin.
Trump continues to work with congressional leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on the 2025 legislative agenda. It includes extending, even enhancing, the tax cuts passed in the first Trump administration; passing sweeping defense and border security measures in support of Trump’s efforts to crack down on illegal immigration; rolling back regulations, especially related to energy and the environment; and confirming Trump’s nominees. There is still debate about what priorities to tackle first, with many arguing for prioritizing tax reform, others advocating for action on the border.
In the spirit of streamlining the government, rolling back regulations and cutting federal spending, the outside advisory committee dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), chaired by billionaire executives Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, is driving considerable interest and enthusiasm. Even some Democrats have signaled interest in engaging. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) will lead efforts in their respective chambers in support of DOGE, including examining ways to downsize the number of government agencies and workers and, in Greene’s case, investigating alleged wasteful spending.
Final Biden-Harris administration priorities
Joe Biden remains the president for 31 more days, executing against a number of outstanding goals. Chief among the foreign policy priorities have been efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, including the release of hostages; other diplomatic efforts toward stability in the Middle East after the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria; and securing additional aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Biden is working with the Senate, while still in Democrats’ control, to confirm as many nominees to federal positions as possible, especially judges, to avoid leaving vacancies for the Trump administration to fill with more conservative picks. The administration is also working to quickly finalize regulations ahead of Republican efforts to repeal Biden-era policies, and to “Trump-proof” its legislative and regulatory accomplishments, including by disbursing funds from the IRA, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act to preserve those investments in clean energy, infrastructure and domestic microchip manufacturing, respectively. The White House has also signaled another round of student loan cancellation, as well as efforts related to capping prescription drug costs, cracking down on “junk fees” and potential new measures related to artificial intelligence and climate.
Biden and White House officials are reportedly weighing preemptive pardons for officials who have not committed crimes but could be the target of political retribution under the Trump administration, including members of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol and their staff; Dr. Anthony Fauci, former chief medical advisor to the president during the COVID-19 response; and special counsel Jack Smith, who led efforts to prosecute Trump for federal election subversion and mishandling of classified documents.
In the largest single act of clemency by a president in one day, Biden commuted the sentences of 1,500 people who were released from prison amid the COVID-19 pandemic to serve home confinement sentences and pardoned 39 Americans convicted of nonviolent crimes.
The 118th Congress closes out
Congress is racing against a December 20 deadline to pass a government funding bill for the fiscal year that began on October 1. The original solve from Speaker Johnson: to use a continuing resolution (CR) to punt the substance of the appropriations process into the new congress – when Republicans will have control of both the House and the Senate and Trump will be in the White House – likely with a mid-March deadline. On Wednesday, December 18, Trump and Musk effectively killed the compromise CR over concerns about the amount of additional spending included and the fact that it does not raise the debt ceiling. A Trump-endorsed CR failed Thursday night, with “no” votes from 38 Republicans and almost all Democrats. Friday morning, Johnson insisted, “We’ve got a plan.” If lawmakers do not reach a new deal by midnight Friday, the government will shut down. The collapse of the CR deal also endangers Johnson’s chances of being reelected Speaker in the new congress, as many fellow Republicans are now voicing a lack of confidence in his leadership.
In another potential sign of the fights to come in the 119th Congress, the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets Pentagon and national security policy for the next year, took an abrupt turn away from its tradition of bipartisanship toward culture wars and controversy. House Speaker Johnson inserted a provision to deny the children of U.S. servicemembers access to gender-affirming care through the military healthcare system. The perceived politicization of the carefully negotiated, bipartisan NDAA led more than half of House Democrats to oppose the bill, which many otherwise would have supported. The Senate passed the bill and it is now headed to Biden’s desk.
Following passage of these last critical pieces of legislation, the 118th Congress will conclude as the least productive in modern times in terms of laws enacted. The 119th Congress will be sworn in and seated on January 3, 2025. One of its first actions: certifying the Electoral College votes from the 2024 election on January 6 – likely much more of a peaceful, routine formality than in 2021.
To gain a deeper understanding of the shifting political environment in Washington, D.C., please consult our policy briefs assessing the domestic and foreign policy priorities of the Trump administration – including across key sectors such as energy, financial services, health care and technology.
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